Showing posts sorted by relevance for query Polemics. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query Polemics. Sort by date Show all posts

Saturday, 18 August 2012

Polemics is Useless
A Proposal For An Eco-socialist Synthesis In The Overpopulation Dispute

[[This essay was originally published in 1993. Twenty years later, with 7 billion people living on the planet today and a projected world population of 9 billion in 2050, its importance has sharply increased. Some facts and figures on the ground have of course changed since 1993, especially with regard to India. But the basic facts and arguments remain the same. And the problem still remains unsolved.]]


The problem of population growth is not only a very important topic, it is also a delicate, even an explosive one. In many leftist, feminist and Third World solidarity circles it is almost impossible to mention it as a serious problem. For many ecologists of the North it is a taboo-topic. They are often afraid of raising this issue, afraid of being abused as eco-imperialists.
    That is understandable. As long as imperialist institutions like the US government, Rockefeller Foundation, World Bank or individual experts like Garrett Hardin1 and Maurice King2 (but also the rulers of the South) are the main protagonists of birth control, the objects of their policies would naturally view every population policy with suspicion. As long as the former think that the latter produce children like rabbits or look at them as if they were weeds, the latter and their political sympathizers will shout back. As long as population policies are implemented at the cost of the health of women, women's groups will naturally reject them.
    As a result of this situation, a genuine discussion between the two sides – the ecologists of the North on the one side and the leftists, feminists and Third World solidarity circles on the other – cannot (and actually does not) take place. What takes place is usually merely polemics. But polemics is of no use. A sincere discussion between the protagonists and opponents of population control is necessary, because the problem is very serious, because a solution must be found soon.
    For a genuine discussion on this topic to be possible, it is necessary to break two taboos. One has already been mentioned above. Ecologists of the North must be allowed to raise the issue without being abused as eco-imperialists. And leftists and others must be allowed to raise the system question without being accused of not having learnt anything. History has not come to an end. Capitalism, free market economy, the present world economic order etc. must be allowed to be brought into the discussion. The discussion must be freed from polemics. All of us, who are concerned about the whole situation – about ecology, hunger, poverty, exploitation, oppression, war, peace and the fate of the future generations – must for once forget our opponents, think the problem through, and ask ourselves what we would do if we had to decide what is to be and can be done today.


Malthus: The Difference Between Problem and Policy

The thinking through must begin with Malthus. We must differentiate between problem and policy. Population policy can be so or so. The one policy can be rejected, the other accepted. But the population problem is an objective state of affairs, which cannot be conjured away. Mixing up the two in discussions creates only confusion.
    The indignation against Malthus is justified. According to him, the poor are themselves to be blamed for their poverty. Without doubt, he was an apologist of the then still ruling class of landlords- This class did not want any social change, and so also Malthus considered it impossible to change society. But the question is whether, for this reason, Malthus'es presentation of the problem is also wrong.
    The harshest critics of Malthus have always been the leftists. Marx considered the essay of Malthus to be a "libel on the human race". Engels wrote in 1865: "economic laws are not eternal laws of nature but historic laws which arise and disappear." He thought, "what is tenable in the so-called Malthusian theory" is valid only for societies "based on class rule and class exploitation". That was no proper refutation. But serious efforts were also made to refute one of the two laws of Malthus. Engels and Lenin recognized that Malthus'es law regarding food production, namely that it increases only in arithmetical progression, is actually based on the law of diminishing returns. They declared that the progress of science and technology is limitless and that this factor of production nullifies the law of diminishing returns, which is otherwise valid, i.e. with regard to the factor of production labour. Basing himself on this optimism, Fidel Castro said in the early sixties: :

"Nobody who is conscious of what man can achieve with the help of science and technology will want to set a limit to the number of people that can live on the earth."5 

For a few decades after the death of Marx, Engels and Lenin, Malthus indeed appeared to be refuted through the factual developments. Thanks to science and technology, food production increased by leaps and bounds. At least in the indu-strial societies there was no hunger.
    But science and technology have in the meantime disappointed further expectations. F. E. Trainer (I suppose a leftist) quotes scientists who ascertained in 1979 and 1980 that returns to technology were generally falling.6 In 1934, Lester Brown wrote:

"The response of crops to the use of additional fertilizer is now diminishing, particularly in agriculturally advanced countries. During the fifties, the application of another ton of fertilizer on average yielded 11.5 more tons of grain. During the sixties, fertilizer grain response ratio was 8.3 to 1. By the seventies it had fallen to 5.8."7

So far as food production is concerned, Trainer informs us, not only is the per capita production stagnating for quite a few years, but in some branches also the absolute production. And the ecological and social havocs that "modern" science and technology have caused (e.g. the green revolution, chemical and radioactive poisoning) and are threatening to cause (genetic engineering) have induced many people to demand a return to the traditional methods of cultivation, which yield less harvest per hectare.
    The other law of Malthus – population grows, if not controlled, in geometrical progression – is more difficult to refute. The only thing that his opponents can do in this respect is to point at the fact that in industrial societies population has stopped growing or is growing very slowly. But that is also no real refutation inasmuch as the couples of these countries are using various means to control birth. An average healthy German couple could, if it would not use any method of contraception or abortion, produce 15 children in 30 years. Obviously, the two laws of Malthus are natural laws.


The Present-day Controversy: What Should Come First?

In the seventies and eighties, the controversy has undergone a qualitative change. The problem is no longer only that of poverty and hunger. Exactly the factors that in the past helped overcome hunger – science, technology and industrialization – have presented us with the global ecological crisis. Neo-Malthusian Paul Ehrlich wrote: "In the long run, the progressive deterioration of our environment may cause more death and misery than any conceivable food-population gap".9
    A few leftists (surely not the majority) have conceded that the problem, as the neo-Malthusians describe it, does indeed exist. One of them, Steve Weissman, wrote as early as in 1971:

"... the neo-Malthusians quickly confound the answer given Reverend Malthus by the nineteenth century, and by most Marxists. This time around, we can't simply wait for science and technology to get us out of the hole. New miracle grains ... But we now know the cost in environmental destruction. ... the green revolution might not even deliver the agricultural goods." 10

Also a few neo-Malthusians (here also not the majority) have moved beyond Malthus. Ehrlich, e.g., wrote:

"The battle to save our planet is not just a battle for population control and environmental sanity, it is also a battle against exploitation, against war, and against racism.11

    The two authors quoted here and their intellectual kin differ mainly in their political approach, in their policy priority. Ehrlich probably interpretes the term "exploitation" less radically than Weissman. But the main question is still: What should come first? Development and radical social change or stopping the population growth? It looks almost like a vicious circle. Ehrlich wrote addressing the leftists: "Whatever your cause, it's a lost cause unless we control population."12 That means, population growth must be stopped first. But Weissman as well as all leftists who have realized that the earth cannot carry an unlimited number of humans are of the opinion that population control cannot function at all under the present-day social conditions (or it may function only if the ruling classes use massive force). That means, they demand radical social change first. Weissman wrote:

"... it is capitalism which creates this irrationality and hastens the destruction of the environment ..., and without destroying capitalism, neither green revolutions nor population control will put food in the mouths of those who cannot afford to pay for it."13

    As to the problem of lowering the birth rate, leftists can cite the example of Cuba in support of their argument. In 1959, the year of the revolution, the birth rate in Cuba was 28 per 1000. In 1983, it was only 14.14 And the state did not have to take any strong measures for that. But the problem is not as simple as that. In China, where too revolutionary social changes had taken place, the state did have to take strong measures for the same purpose.
    Many critics express their abhorrence against giving population control the priority in inordinately exaggerated and defamatory terms like "genocide", "depopulating", "doing away with the poor" etc. Why a policy which only wants that couples should restrict the number of their children to two should be tantamount to genocide, depopulating etc. is beyond the comprehension of anybody with common sense. Or are we supposed to believe that the Han leaders of China, who have been pursuing a policy of one-child family for quite a few years now, are perpetrating genocide against the Han people? In fact, genocide is a crime that not only imperialist nations can commit. Even lesser nations, the populations of which are growing fast, can commit something like genocide against weaker and less numerous tribal peoples within their own territories. That can be witnessed today in many parts of the Third World.


How Acute Is the Crisis? How Much Latitude Do We Still Have?

If an egalitarian and just social order is the precondition for the acceptance of a population control policy by the majorities of the peoples of the South, then the question arises: how soon, if at all, we may expect such a social order to come into being? In the seventies, especially after the victory of the socialist revolution in South East Asia and Nicaragua, it appeared as though it would not take too long. In the meantime, however, we have become wiser. But if gradual changes are the only hope, then it could take a long time, and the population would continue to grow in many countries.
    At this point, several arguments against the need for a population control policy come in. "Development is the best contraceptive", has been (und still is) the slogan of many leftists and average politicians of the South since the world population Conference of Bucharest in 1974. This argument is also supported by the theory of demographic transition, which states – on the basis of the demographic history of the industrialized European countries – that with growing prosperity the birth rate falls, quasi automatically, and finally equals the death rate at the end of the third and final phase of the transition. But this theory was formulated before humankind became aware of the limits to growth. All countries of the South would never be able to reach the prosperity level of e.g. West Germany in 1972, the year in which it completed the third phase of the demographic transition. Moreover, prosperity alone may not suffice. In Saudi Arabia – for the last two decades one of the richest countries of the world – the birth rate is still above 40.15
    As a sort of supporting argument to the above, leftists argue that the problem of hunger in the present-day world is no problem at all, that there is enough food in the world, that it needs only to be distributed properly. That is perfectly true. However, some questions remain:
a) We are not only concerned with the situation today. We must also ask: How long can the world food production keep pace with a growing world population? The facts and figures quoted from the works of Trainer and Brown do not give any ground for optimism in this regard.
b) The negative ecological effects of intensive agriculture are well known. Is it permissible to intensify it still further in order to produce more food for a growing population?
c) How can we expect that the peoples of the food-surplus countries would work hard and invest their money in agriculture in order finally to gift away their surplus to the poor peoples of the South? There is hardly any internationalist spirit today among the majorities of the peoples of the world. Even existing nations are breaking up by reason of selfishness of the regions. We must not give up the ideal of international solidarity. But it is a long-term goal. Moreover, viewed from any angle – ecological, economic or political – at least so far as food is concerned, the best policy today is self-sufficiency.
d) The food-surplus countries would surely like to sell their surplus. But where will the poor countries of the South get the foreign exchange from to pay for the continuously rising food Imports?
    An alternative line of argumentation used against population control policies is based on calculations pertaining to the maximum carrying capacity of the earth. In 1982, it was asserted in a study of the FAO and UNFPA that there is enough land in the Third World (without China) to feed 33 billion people – however, only if every square metre of cultivable land and large quantities of fertilizers and other chemicals are used for the production of a just sufficient quantity of vegetarian food.16 But there is also a model for the production of sufficient food for 15 biilion people with moderate use of fertilizers and other chemicals. This model, it is asserted, permits an ecologically careful handling of nature,17 It is generally assumed that the world population will stabilize sometime between 2050 and 2100 at 11 to 14 billion. According to these models, therefore, there is not only enough time and latitude for a long-term programme of radical social change or revolution but also no reason at all for panic.

I have some objections to and problems with this line of argumentation:
a) If we in the Third World (without China) want to produce enough food for 15 billion people with just a moderate use of fertilizers and other chemicals because we do not want to damage the environment, then agriculture must become more extensive. We would need more cultivated land, but also more land for houses, roads, schools, offices, factories etc. etc. Of course, there is still a lot of land in the world that can be additionally brought under the plough. But we know that every year 6 million hectares cultivated land are being lost through soil erosion, salination etc. If this trend continues, then about the same amount of land will continue to be lost as can be made available every year for cuitivation.18
    But let us suppose that with great effort and by means of a proper mix of correct policies this trend can be stopped. Even then, feeding 15 billion people by means of extensive agriculture would mean that a very large portion of the still remaining forests (including the rain forests) would be lost. Of course, the demands of the luxury industries could be radically rejected. But even satisfying the other basic needs of 15 billion people like firewood and building timber would lead to continuous destruction of ever more forests. But, apart from the fact that we humans ourselves need a certain proportion of land covered with forests, these forests are the habitats of many other species (whom also we, by the way, need). Does the human species have the right to conquer more "Lebensraum" (living space)?
    b) Millions of people would in that case have to migrate into areas which are still thinly populated. But these areas belong to other groups of humans – to the Amerindians, Maoris, Aborigines and other tribes, Should they be pushed out of their land? Should we wage war against them?
    c) What should the peoples of the already densely populated countries – India, Bangladesh, Egypt, e.g. – do, if the peoples and rulers of the thinly populated countries do not give them the permission to immigrate? Of what use are then the above model calculations for them?
    d) Preconditions for producing enough food for 15 billion people on the land of the Third World without China (if that were at all possible, about which great doubts exist) are, according to the opponents of all population control policies, a sound agricultural policy, egalitarian economic development, a different development strategy etc. etc. These and a few things more constitute, according to them, the social conditions, only under which population growth can slow down gradually. But the precondition for these preconditions is radically changed power relations. That means, these "preconditions" are actually not preconditions but goals for which we are politically active. Such goals can be attained only at the end of a long struggle. If the population continues to grow before we have reached the above goals, then the ecological balance will be restored by nature itself – through hunger, war, disease, epidemic etc. Do we want that?
    e) One simply assumes that the world population would stabilize at 11 to 14 billion. But how? Automatically? Neither prosperity nor a just and egalitarian social order can by themselves cause the number of children per couple to go down to two. They are only favourable conditions.19 For the actual task of limiting the number of children to two, the couples must consciously do something – either on their own initiative or urged by the society. And this is population control. The only question here is whether the couples are doing this voluntarily or under compulsion.


Half-Truths And One-Sided, Dogmatic Approaches

Unfortunately, on both sides, most participants in the quarrel (it has indeed been a quarrel, not a discussion!) have till now mainly operated with half-truths and one-sided explanations. In the seventies, the neo-Malthusians had only one explanation for the ecological crisis: overpopulation. Ehrlich e.g. wrote:

"Too many cars, too many factories, too much detergent, too much pesticide, multiplying contrails, inadequate sewage treatment plants, too little water, too much carbon dioxide – all can be traced easily to too many people."20

Ehrlich, who conceded the existence of exploitation, mentioned here neither the per capita consumption of the rich North nor the capitalist system as a cause of the ecological crisis. Since the late eighties, some of the participants from the North have been mentioning the per capita consumption of the North but not capitalism.
    And most protagonists of the other side continue to blame the whole problem on over-consumption in the North, the capitalist system, and imperialism. For instance, Ursula Pattberg, a German sympathizer of the Third World, wrote in 1992 :21

"I am against a population policy because it is not the need of the moment. What is needed is rather a different policy on resources. It is a matter of a cultural revolution: a matter of distribution of land, air, water, food and other things. If we can achieve a just distribution of these resources, then the debate on population policy is superfluous."

On the ecological crisis, she wrote:

"…. the causes of environmental destruction in Thailand ... are quite clearly the interests of capital. It is a matter of profit maximization and destruction of nature for the sake of short-term profits.”

Then she reported:

"In Thailand, there is a People's Forum in which several NGOs have joined up. In their programme, the word 'birth planning' does not occur at all; overpopulation is for them no subject for discussion."

She quoted from the programme of People's Forum:

"The economically powerful countries will strengthen their efforts to control the resources. They will use all ways and means including the international organizations like the World     Bank in order to maintain their good starting position and to represent their interests. The countries of the Third World have been instrumentalized in this process – ignoring the fact that they have a right to their own development."

Ursula Pattberg sums up: "What these groups demand is the right to use their own resources."


An Alternative, Synthesizing Political Approach

Instead of rejecting every population control policy and insisting on revolution first or development first, we should come forward with an alternative proposal for a population policy. A good and very necessary thing has fallen in the hands of bad people. We must take it up as our cause and integrate it into our efforts to create an egalitarian, just and ecological society. We must denounce the misuse of facts, but we must not deny the facts themselves. We cannot e.g. deny that the growth of India's population from 360 million in 1951 to 845 million in 1991 is a serious problem for India (if not also for the world),that it has produced a very adverse impact on her environment in addition to lowering the per capita availability of land, food, water and other resources.
    It is true, not the whole ecological crisis and not the whole hunger in the world have been caused by the growth of population. But a big role of this factor in the various crises of today and the future cannot be denied. It is not wrong what the UNFPA writes in this regard:

"Population is always part of the equation. For any given type of technology, for any given level of consumption or waste, for any given level of poverty or inequality, the more people there are, the greater is the impact on the environment."22

    We must only stress the other parts of the equation too: the wrong technology, the over-consumption of a minority (especially in the North), the wastage and, last but not least, the bad socio-political system and the bad world economic order (imperialism). Against politics with half-truths we must only practise politics with the whole truth. We must e.g. stress that the number of cars and car-kilometres is not growing the most where the population is growing, but where the latter has become stabilized.
    In this connection it is necessary to differentiate between the global problems and the local, regional and national Problems. In the case of global problems – general resource depletion, ozone depletion, global warming, and pollution of the oceans, to mention only the best known ones – clearly, the industrial societies are the main culprits. Their per capita consumption of resources and emission of pollutants have grown enormously in the last four decades. But India, e.g., is also partly responsible for the global problems. Even if we assume that India's per capita rates of resource consumption and pollution have not grown, there is no denying the fact that the growth in the number of people consuming and polluting at constant rates makes a great difference in absolute figures.
    In case of local, regional or national problems such as water famine, pollution of a river, toxic emissions of a chemical factory or soil erosion through deforestation, one cannot say that for such problems in Third World countries only or even mainly the industrial nations are responsible. Of course, since today all the national economies are interwoven and since multinational corporations are present everywhere, industrial nations also contribute directly or indirectly to such problems . But the main authors of such problems are the peoples of such countries and/or their ruling classes.
    Of course, the unjust world economic order and especially the debt crisis are creating a tremendous pressure. But at least so far as the ecological misery is concerned, it would have been there also without the effects of these two factors, also without imperialism and exploitation – simply through the process of economic development, from which, as we know, not only the rich have profited but also the organized working class.
    The alternative approach to the population problem I am proposing here can be called an eco-socialist one. Parallel to our criticism of imperialism and capitalism, and parallel to our demand that the economies of the North must shrink, we must also demand and support an active policy for stopping population growth – everywhere in the world where it is still taking place. For, if only the economies of the North shrink, that would not automatically lead to, e.g., the stopping of soil erosion in the South, Of course, many things have to be done to solve the various problems of the South. But stopping the population growth is one of the most important of such things. The peoples of the South should do that in their own interest and before they can make a revolution.
    The main reason for the failure or inadequacy of the various hitherto implemented population control programmes are known. To be sure, there are social, cultural and emotional reasons that made the acceptance of such programmes difficult. But these difficulties were not insurmountable. Insurmountable has been actually only the private economic rationality, the fact that for the poor, children – in most cases only sons – are assets and the only old-age security. It is insurmountable, because it is connected with the instinct of self-preservation. Mahmood Mamdani's study of the Indian village Manupur undertaken in the wake of the total failure of an intensive family planning programme bears testimony to the strength of this private economic rationality. Mamdani wrote:

"No programme would have succeeded, because birth control contradicted the vital interests of the majority of the villagers. To practise contraception would have meant to wilfully court economic disaster."23

For many farmers of Manupur, the private economic rationality went beyond old-age security. Some saw in their children cheap farm labourers who "worked like donkeys" for just board and lodging. Hired labourers would have demanded more. Some saw in their sons who could get Jobs elsewhere a source of prosperity, for the sons respectfully remitted their surplus to the father. In both cases, the children were exploited by the parents. This process could/can go on as long as it was/is possible for the children to produce a surplus which the father could/can appropriate. And this was possible in India in the period 1954–1972 covered by Mamdani. That was the period of rapid economic growth; it brought prosperity to many. Sons of poor farmers could find Jobs in towns.
    As we know, the period of steady development has come to an end in most Third World countries. The ecological basis of the economy of the future generations has been or is being ruined. Children are not assets any more, at least not for all poor people. The street children of Bombay or Rio can hardly remit any surplus to the parents. Nevertheless, even if they do not produce any surplus for the parents, if they only survive, there is still hope, in many cases unfounded, that they would look after their old parents and at least give them two simple meals a day. That may seem in this brutal, merciless world rational enough for poor people to want to produce five or six children, so that at least two of them could be sons.
    This inherent contradiction between private economic rationality and common weal including that of the children and future generations is the strongest argument for socialism. The alternative policy proposal of eco-socialists should be based on this fact. The state should guarantee (only) to the poor a minimum old-age security under the condition that they limit the number of their offspring to two. There is reason to hope that the strongest of all instincts, the instinct of self-preservation, would motivate poor people to accept this offer. If another condition could be added to it, namely that the woman claiming this guarantee must not have married before the age of say twenty one, then these three things together would mean quite a substantial contribution to women's liberation.
    Whether the rulers of the South would accept this proposal is at present only a matter for speculation, for no strong political force has submitted it yet. In any case, the probability that they, in their desperation, would accept this proposal is greater than the probability that they would not resist with arms and soldiers the efforts to make a revolution, the prospects of success of which are in any case very bad today. In national-economic terms, a guaranteed old-age security for the poor is much cheaper than everything else that must be undertaken to feed, clothe, house, and educate a growing population.
    The health reasons for which many women's groups oppose all hitherto practised population control policies can be easily removed by calling upon men to use condoms or get themselves sterilized. In patriarchy, men are responsible for everything, so they should also bear the burden of reducing the birth rate. The state can convincingly argue that vasectomy is harmless and much easier and cheaper than any other method. It is very important to differentiate between the absolute necessity of population control and the pro and contra of particular means, methods, and programmes thereof.
    One particular position of many feminists and leftists that does not convince must be mentioned here. "Children or no children will be decided by us alone", was the justified slogan of the German women's movement in the 1970s against the anti-abortion law. However, self-determination, autonomy, freedom or reproductive choice – whatever one may call it21 – cannot be extended to the question of number of children. As soon as a child is born, the parents make demands on society. Along with the parents, society is also responsible for providing most of the things that a child needs and would need when it becomes a young person. Even if the parents are prepared to work hard for the sake of their child, society may not be able to provide for it milk, food, water, schooling, health care etc. without depriving other children of these things. One often hears the argument: women have always sought to limit births. That is true. But they have not always sought to limit them to two. Even today, most Indian women would like to have two sons and that may lead to five births.
    I have heard from a female sociologist from Zimbabwe that in her country a woman attains a good status in society only after she has produced six children. In respect of all other rights and freedoms of an individual, we agree that they end at a point where they harm others, The same should apply to the right to reproductive choice. In a society living on the brink of collapse, an individual cannot have the freedom e.g. to consume as much water or emit as much CO2 as he or she may decide. Similarly, one should not have the freedom to decide the number of one' s children. One may have the freedom to beget less than two children or none at all, but one should not have the freedom to beget more than two. "Freedom is the recognition of necessity", said Hegel. The science of ecology and other sciences having to do with the question of the carrying capacity of the earth have already dictated the necessity that couples limit the number of their children to two, preferably, on average, less than two.
    Today, in their political work, eco-socialists can very well combine the two short-term necessities: the necessity to stop population growth and the necessity of social security. They can reasonably consider this as a part of their long-term struggle for radical social change. If it becomes reality, a guaranteed old-age security for the poor would be the beginning of a welfare state. And from there a transition to some kind of a socialist society is at least conceivable, particularly in the poor countries of the world suffering in the regime of capitalist market economy under the heavy pressure of worsening economic and ecological crises. This approach would at least in no way hinder any kind of struggle for socialism.
    Some radical leftists may still be thinking that growing poverty of a growing number of people may lead to a revolution. But that is more likely to lead to poor people killing each other and the exploited and oppressed trying to exploit and oppress the other exploited and oppressed. In fact, such things are already happening in the world. Instead of only dreaming of such revolutions, it would be more concrete socialist politics, if the leftists organize a massive campaign in favour of the measures proposed here. It can be considered to be a campaign for ecology and socialism. If some leftists think that today, just four years after the fall of the Berlin wall, the idea of socialism is a chimera, they should still campaign for such measures. After all, if implemented, they would at least mean a certain transfer of resources from the rich to the poor. With such a limited purpose, they have always supported the demands of the organized working class for higher wages. In the countries of the North, leftists and others who solidarize with the peoples of the South may demand that their states materially help the South in this matter.


Notes and References

1. Garrett Hardin: "Lifeboat Ethics – The Case Against Helping the Poor"; in Psychology Today; September 1974.
2. Maurice King proposed a sort of passive euthanasia. cf. Maurice King: "Health Is A Sustainable State"; in The Lancet; (8716) 1990,336:664–667 (I have found this reference in a German book.)
3. The reference here is to the assertion to the contrary made by Francis Fukuyama. cf. Francis Fukuyama: "Das Ende der Geschichte"; in Europäische Rundschau; 4/89; Wien. (Published originally in The National Interest; Summer 1989.)
4. The following summary of the views of Marx, Engels and Lenin on Malthus is based on quotations I have found in Ronald L. Meek (ed.): Marx and Engels on the Population Bomb; Berkeley; The Ramparts Press; 1971.
5. Quoted in Hans Magnus Enzensberger: "Zur Kritik der politischen Ökologie"; in Kursbuch 33 (1973); P.17.
6. F. E.Trainer: Abandon Affluence!; London; Zed; 1985; P.211.
7. Lester Brown: "Securing Food Supplies"; in Lester Brown et al.: State of the World 1984; New York; 1984; P.179.
8. F. E. Trainer:(see note 6); P.209-210.
9. Paul Ehrlich: quoted in Steve Weissman: "Foreword"; in Ronald L. Meek (see note 4); P.XI.
10. Steve Weissman: ibid; P.XII.
11. Ehrlich: quoted in Steve Weissman (see note 9); P.XV.
12. Ehrlich: ibid.
13. Weissman: (see note 9); P.XIII.
14. cf. Lester Brown: "Stabilizing Population"; in Lester Brown et al.(see note 7); P.26.
15. cf. Donella and Dennis Meadows, Jorgen Randers: Die neuen Grenzen des Wachstums; DVA; 1992; P.54.
16. cf. Nafis Sadik: The State of World Population 1990; UNFPA; New York; P,7.
17. Gabriela Simon: "Wie viel ist zuviel?"; in: blätter des iz3W; November 1991; P.30.
18. Stiftung Entwicklung und Frieden: Global Trends 1991; Bonn; 1991; P.237-238.
19. The already mentioned cases of Saudi Arabia and China prove this point.
20. Ehrlich: quoted in Barry Commoner: Making Peace With the Planet; P.143. (The photocopied sheets in my possession do not contain the page stating place and year of publication.)
21. Ursula Pattberg: "Fallbeispiel Thailand - verfehlte Ressourcenpolitik"; in Informationsbrief (Sonderdienst) Weltwirtschaft & Entwicklung; 29.Juni 1992; P.5-6,
22. Sadik (see note 16); P,10.
23. Mahmood Mamdani: The Myth of Population Control; Monthly Review Press; New York; 1972. P.21.
24. cf. e.g. Betsy Hartmann: A Review of Reproductive Rights and Wrongs – The Global Politics of Population Control and Contraceptive Choice; Harper and Row; New York; 1987.



Cologne, 12.2.1993

Saral Sarkar
Karl-Begas-Str. 3
50939 - Köln
Germany.
saralsarkar@t-online.de

Wednesday, 2 September 2015

Root Causes of the Cleavages in the Ecological Left

Some time back, a political friend, who understands himself as an eco-anarchist but also sympathizes with eco-socialism, had a controversial discussion with an activist, who understands himself as an eco-socialist, on the question of the cleavages in the ecological left. My eco-anarchist friend requested me and some others to respond to the controversial discussion, which I gladly did because I thought at least the root causes of the cleavages must be understood if the latter cannot be overcome at present.
    They did not want me to give the links to their own original contributions written in the form of letters, arguing that they did not write them with sufficient care.
    I am publishing below my response to the controversy, putting down only a few points that are more important and ignoring the less important ones. The reader will easily understand which points made by the others I am referring to. They are colored red.

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    There indeed are some cleavages in, generally speaking, the ecological left movement. That does not necessarily mean that any group is sectarian. The differences are genuine and they might be overcome through further thinking, reading, discussion, and joint activities. I have identified four root causes of the cleavages.

1.
The Energy Question

I think the most primary root cause of the cleavages lies in different understandings of the energy problematique. If one is an optimist, if one believes like Ongerth that
100% renewables is not only achievable, but it’s also EASILY achievable, then why should one at all object to further economic growth and advocate a steady-state economy as Ongerth and his anarchist and socialist friends do? After all, then there would be no CO2 emission any more, and if some are allowed for any reason, that would be reabsorbed soon, would not hang on in the atmosphere. Then the problem of global warming would not exist any more! Then there would not be any environmental pollution at all, for, with cheap and abundant renewable energy, any waste can be easily recycled. Hermann Scheer, until his death the high priest of solar energy in Europe, wrote:

“For an inconceivably long time the sun will donate its energy to humans, animals, and plants. And it will do that so lavishly that it could satisfy even the most sumptuous energy needs of the worlds of humans, animals and plants experiencing drastic growth: [for] the sun supplies every year 15,000 times more energy than what the world population commercially consumes … .” (Scheer 1999: 66)1

    Then the resource problem would also be solved! Then we can get by without extracting a single molecule more. And we can then even have further economic growth (why remain stuck up in steady state at the present level?). Then why shouldn't all the poor people of the world also enjoy each, individually, a swimming pool, a sailboat, skis, a big house and other wasteful luxuries? Why not for all at least a car powered by renewable energy? Or powered by electricity drawn from hydrogen fuel cells? (If they want to use a car collectively, then not because it would not be possible to own and use a car individually and without damaging the environment!).
    But if the optimism of Ongerth, Scheer etc. are unfounded, then we must soon begin the process of economic contraction (one can call it so if one does not like the term de-growth because of its alleged association with reactionaries and white-supremacists.) Then, and only then, is an egalitarian or socialist policy the best way to achieve that contraction for the sake of saving the planet. And that is the compelling new argument for socialism in the 21st century. I hope Ongerth and his optimist friends will now notice the inner contradiction in their position.
    I think this optimism is based on nothing but so many illusions and misinformation. Ongerth has read one dozen books and 1000 articles on this subject. So may I suggest that he reads only a few more? : Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen's book The entropy Law and the Economic Process,2 especially his 1978 article, a very short one: "Technology Assessment: The Case of the Direct Use of Solar Energy".3 My own effort to understand and present the problematique is contained in my book Eco-Socialism or Eco-Capitalism?4 (Ch. 4, PP. 102 –139). The latest of my efforts to present the problem is contained in: "Krugman's Illusion: We Becoming Richer, But Not Damaging the Environment"5:
    Very important is to understand the following: (1) the difference between feasible and viable, (2) the entropy law6, (3) the difference between price (money cost) and energy cost, (4) the difference between energy production technologies and all other kinds of technologies, (5) the difference between gross energy and net energy (AKA energy balance, EROEI, and energy pay-back time).
    Examples and explanations of the above differences are given below: (1) It is feasible to put a few humans on the moon, but it is not viable to maintain a human colony there because of the enormous costs in terms of energy and materials. (2) The entropy law makes it impossible to recycle all waste. (3) The price (money cost) of solar cells (at the market) may fall for many reasons, but the energy cost thereof may rise at the same time. (4) When we want to fly by an airplane or have light in the evening, we may be prepared to pay any price (also in energy terms) for the flight/light. But if we want to produce energy (e.g. by using solar cells), then it does not make sense to incur more energy cost for manufacturing all the required equipment (by using energy from coal and oil which we are doing till today) than the total amount of energy produced. (5) It is at least very doubtful that the net energy coming from solar, wind and some other renewable energy technologies is high enough to maintain the industrial society as we know it. We cannot save the planet without drastically reducing our present standard of living. We only do not know by how much we must reduce it. Saving the planet should be our top priority, for our own sake, and not saving the average standard of living of First World workers.
    It is wrong to argue, as Ted Trainer does,
that renewables are likely to be unaffordable to run energy-intensive growth-capitalist-consumer society because of unaffordable capital costs required to maintain a constant energy supply using intermittent sources. That may at best be a secondary or tertiary argument. The transition from the energy system of the 17th and 18th centuries based on renewables (wood, fodder for draught animals, sundry biomass, wind and water mills) to the energy system based mainly on fossil fuels (plus a little hydropower) also involved enormous capital costs. Mankind could afford that, first the rich countries, then also the Third World countries. It of course took a long time and a lot of sacrifice to accumulate the necessary amount of capital, but it could be done. The question that must be answered now is why we (both Ted and I) think that this time the capital costs involved in the transition from today's energy system mainly based on fossil fuels to an energy system based wholly on renewable energies should be unaffordable. The answer lies in the concept of energy density (or energy content) and not so much on intermittency of the renewables. One Kilogram of coal or oil contains many times more energy than the same amount of wood etc. (for details of the argumentation see my 1999 book.) From the first named transition (from the renewables to the fossil sources), mankind came out richer. From the increased wealth, our forefathers could accumulate enough capital for completing the transition. But this time, from the transition from the fossil sources to the renewables (if that at all takes place, for which I am not seeing sufficient signs), mankind would come out poorer. That is why mankind would not be able to accumulate enough capital to build the second generation of renewable power plants that would have to be built as replacement for the worn out first generation thereof. But why should mankind come out poorer from the second named transition, should it take place?
    There has been a lot of dispute about the exact EROEI (or net energy or energy pay back time) of solar electricity, wind electricity etc. at different places and under different conditions. But nobody has till now asserted that e.g. one unit of sunshine (say, on one square meter of the earth's surface) contains as much or more energy than, say, one Kilogram of bituminous coal. Even a lay person perceives and knows that coal and oil are already highly concentrated solar energy, concentrated and stored by nature over several millions of years, whereas sunshine reaches the surface of the earth in weak and diffuse form and must first be collected and concentrated by us before we can use it as electricity. It is therefore easier and much less costly to collect and use fossil fuels than sunshine and wind. This common sense led India and China – both rich in sunshine and wind – to mainly use fossil fuels for energy rather than sunshine and wind. India has recently decided to double its coal production in the next five years.

2. Scientific and Technological progress

The second root cause of the cleavages lies in our expectations from science and technology. Almost all optimists (both socialists and pro-capitalists) believe that it is only a matter of a few decades more when 100% renewables will be achieved. Haven't we succeeded in overcoming gravity? Are we not talking with persons who live 20 000 miles away? Or think of the computer and internet! Particularly the computer has been cited by the optimists again and again. I saw the first IBM computers in the mid 1970s – three big cupboards and a one meter long key-board for punching holes in cards. After only ten years, I saw small table-top PCs in every office. In another five years, PCs had become so cheap that I could see, in Germany, a PC in almost every household. If all that has become possible, why shouldn't 100% renewables be possible?
    It is true, these achievements appear like miracles. Yet I am quite skeptical about 100% renewables. Flying by an airplane, landing on the moon, telephoning a friend who lives 20.000 miles away, computers etc. – all these achievements were possible only after we discovered and started using the fossil fuels, their immense amount of concentrated energy. But even these energy sources are going to be exhausted or become unaffordable, sooner or later. And their use must also be drastically curtailed for stopping further global warming.
    But, as Georgescu-Roegen (1978) argued, manufacture of all equipment from A to Z involved in generating renewable energies (from earth removers and foundry equipment to silicon wafers, rotors, turbines, reinforced concrete towers of windmills, copper wires etc. etc. etc.) require expenditure of large amounts of fossil fuels. That means, renewable energy technologies will only exist as long as fossil fuels remain cheap and abundant. That is, the former are parasites of the latter. 7
    In my youth, in the early fifties, I too was an optimist. I accepted the hope shared by many that progress in science and technology will one day also enable us to make the Sahara bloom, that nuclear energy will make electricity so cheap and abundant that it would not be worth the trouble to measure its consumption in individual households. Only much later did I realize that there are several things that are, of course, feasible but are not viable on a large scale. Thus I saw the first solar panel pumping water in the mid 1970s. Forty years later, today, unlike the computer, solar electricity still has not been able to make a breakthrough. It still needs state subsidies of various kinds.

3. The Population Problem

The third root cause of the cleavages lies in our respective stances on the population question. However much one may denigrate Malthus, Garret Hardin and Paul Ehrlich as reactionaries and anti-communists, the fact remains that a certain quantity of national (or world) income divided by a population of, say, 2 millions will yield half as much income per capita as when it is divided by a population of one million. This is true in any society, in a capitalist one or in a classless socialist one. Moreover, the allergic reaction of most leftists in North America and other rich or huge but sparsely populated countries to the population issue shows that they have not understood at all what ecology is about. Ecology is the study of the relation of a population to the (natural) resources available in its habitat. I am a socialist from my school days and I have lived in India for 46 years (current population 1.26 billion). Malthus was my first ecology teacher. From Paul Ehrlich I learnt, "Whatever your cause, it is a lost cause unless we control population [growth].".8 The more India and China (current population 1.4 billion) try to improve the standard of living of their populace, the more they degrade their environment. There indeed is a fundamental contradiction between ecology and economy, and not just between ecology and capitalism (what Marx, Marxists and old leftists have been trying to make us believe). If Ongerth is prepared to read another article, I would recommend him the following one of mine: "
Polemics is Useless  – A Proposal For An Eco-socialist Synthesis In The Overpopulation Dispute.9

4. The Agency Question

The fourth root cause lies in the question of faith or lack thereof in the revolutionary role of the working class. You know what Marx expected from the working class: that the workers of the whole world would unite for making the revolution. He thought they had nothing to lose but their chains, that they had no fatherland etc. etc. But already by 1914, on the eve of the First World War, these expectations proved to be utterly baseless. The workers of Europe could not unite, they showed that they were divided, and each group had a fatherland. They killed each other en masse. And already a decade or two earlier, The party of German workers, the SPD, had said that Germans as a Kulturvolk (people with culture) must also have colonies.10
    If one asks me who then would change the world, I cannot give a clear answer, but a vague answer might be what Erich Fromm said. Fromm said, in regard to this question, he recognized only two camps among humans, namely "
those who care and those who don’t care".11. I think my provisional and very vague answer would be: those who are concerned about the state of the world must take up this responsibility. They may come from any class, nation, race, religious group etc.
    Since I count all leftists (also a vague term) and environmentalists among those who are concerned, I would call upon them to unite on the basis of whatever agreements today exist and start the work of changing the world. We may at the same time continue to discuss our differences on analysis, goals and strategy in order to come to further agreements.

Notes:

1. Scheer, Herrmann (1999) Solare Weltwirtschaft – Strategie für die ökologische Moderne. Munich.

2. Georgescu-Roegen, Nicholas (1971/1981) The Entropy Law and the Economic Process. Cambridge. MA.
3. Georgescu-Roegen, Nicholas (1978) »Technology Assessment: The Case of the Direct Use of Solar Energy«. In: Atlantic Economic Journal, December 1978.

4. Sarkar, Saral (1999 ) Eco-Socialism or Eco-Capitalism? London.

5. Sarkar, Saral (2014)
"Krugman's Illusion: We Becoming Richer, But Not Damaging the Environment":
http://eco-socialist.blogspot.de/2014/04/krugmans-illusion-we-becoming-richer.html

6. There is a short presentation thereof in
Sarkar, Saral (2012) The Crises of Capitalism. Berkeley. PP. 286–290.

7. See Georgescu-Roegen (note 3).

8. Ehrlich, Paul, quoted in Weissman, Steve (1971) "Foreward", in
Meek, Ronald L. (ed.) (1971) Marx and Engels on the Population Bomb. Berkeley.

9. Sarkar, Saral (2012)
http://eco-socialist.blogspot.de/2012/08/polemics-is-useless-proposal-for-eco.html

10.
See Mandelbaum, Kurt (1974) Sozialdemokratie und Leninismus. Berlin.

11. Fromm, Erich (
1982) To Have or To Be. London. P. 191.